Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 9–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 4104 BZN 15:53 → SEA 17:09 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AS 279 BZN 14:15 → SEA 15:02 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 4104 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BZN 15:53	SEA 17:09	9%	4%	0.5%	88%
DL 4092 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BZN 08:25	SEA 09:28	10%	4%	0.6%	91%
AS 761 Alaska	BZN 07:26	SEA 07:45	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
AS 279 Alaska Flight history →	BZN 14:15	SEA 15:02	18%	3%	0.7%	82%
AS 2141 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	BZN 10:26	SEA 11:23	14%	2%	0.6%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON