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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: one nonstop, UA 1702 at 16:17, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1702 United Flight history → BZN 16:17 SFO 17:50 13% 5% 0.6% 56%
AS 2063 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record BZN 17:51 SFO 19:25 82% 43% 5.8% 18%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 1 h behind Bozeman). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BZN 06:00 → MSP 09:11DL 1678 1h 49m Minneapolis MSP 11:00 → SFO 13:09DL 2074 8h 09m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → BZN 05:15 → SLC 06:34DL 491 1h 16m Salt Lake City SLC 07:50 → SFO 08:51DL 920 4h 36m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → BZN 19:30 → SLC 20:55DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest 1h 55m Salt Lake City SLC 22:50 → SFO 23:52DL 1091 5h 22m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → BZN 06:30 → DEN 08:24UA 1362 2h 57m Denver DEN 11:21 → SFO 13:04UA 1561 7h 34m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → BZN 13:55 → MSP 17:21DL 2946 1h 29m Minneapolis MSP 18:50 → SFO 20:57DL 2809 8h 02m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → BZN 12:13 → SLC 13:39DL 1971 1h 31m Salt Lake City SLC 15:10 → SFO 16:12DL 1088 4h 59m 98% 84%
AlaskaDetails → BZN 16:04 → PDX 16:50AS 2021 · flown by Horizon 1h 56m Portland PDX 18:46 → SFO 20:36AS 1374 5h 31m 95% 84%
UnitedDetails → BZN 16:27 → DEN 18:34UA 431 2h 36m Denver DEN 21:10 → SFO 22:56UA 2123 7h 29m 98% 83%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON