Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 5–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3038 CAE 05:35 → ATL 06:40 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest DL 3193 CAE 15:51 → ATL 16:59 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 3038 Delta Flight history →	CAE 05:35	ATL 06:40	5%	2%	0.7%	95%
DL 1590 Delta Flight history →	CAE 11:55	ATL 13:12	6%	2%	0.6%	91%
DL 9973 Delta	CAE 12:56	ATL 14:12	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 3061 Delta Flight history →	CAE 07:02	ATL 08:19	7%	3%	0.7%	93%
DL 3032 Delta Flight history →	CAE 18:10	ATL 19:28	8%	2%	0.6%	78%
DL 2944 Delta Flight history →	CAE 13:47	ATL 14:56	9%	2%	0.6%	84%
DL 3193 Delta Flight history →	CAE 15:51	ATL 16:59	10%	2%	0.6%	77%
DL 5091 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CAE 11:58	ATL 13:10	11%	2%	0.0%	89%
DL 5061 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CAE 06:40	ATL 07:54	21%	15%	3.6%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON