Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 13–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 5603 CAE 06:00 → DCA 07:40 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 5095 CAE 18:47 → DCA 20:24 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5603 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CAE 06:00	DCA 07:40	13%	4%	0.8%	88%
AA 5107 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CAE 10:39	DCA 12:19	16%	5%	0.8%	76%
AA 5095 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CAE 18:47	DCA 20:24	21%	6%	0.9%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON