Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: YX 4620 at 06:03 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–19%.

Safest bet that day YX 4620 CAE 06:03 → LGA 08:00 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 5089 CAE 15:55 → LGA 17:52 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4620 Republic	CAE 06:03	LGA 08:00	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 4506 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CAE 14:56	LGA 17:05	13%	4%	0.7%	69%
DL 5131 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	CAE 06:58	LGA 08:50	14%	3%	0.8%	87%
DL 5089 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	CAE 15:55	LGA 17:52	19%	5%	0.7%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON