tailodds FORECAST
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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 4–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YX 4486 CAE 06:04 → ORD 07:33 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 4183 CAE 17:13 → ORD 18:44 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time
Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.
YX 4486 Republic CAE 06:04 ORD 07:33 4% 2% 0.6% no record
OO 4670 SkyWest CAE 06:26 ORD 07:49 7% 3% 0.6% no record
OO 4677 SkyWest CAE 10:17 ORD 11:21 11% 3% 0.6% no record
UA 4783 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → CAE 17:34 ORD 18:53 11% 3% 0.7% 58%
AA 4183 American flown by Envoy Flight history → CAE 17:13 ORD 18:44 12% 2% 0.8% 74%
UA 4496 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record CAE 06:25 ORD 07:52 7% 6% 1.4% 93%
UA 4189 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record CAE 11:03 ORD 12:25 23% 3% 3.2% 77%
UA 4400 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record CAE 17:41 ORD 19:05 24% 14% 8.3% 76%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON