Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 5–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1044 CHA 05:35 → ATL 06:29 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest DL 3124 CHA 18:05 → ATL 19:04 · 11% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 1044 Delta Flight history →	CHA 05:35	ATL 06:29	5%	5%	0.9%	100%
DL 3039 Delta Flight history →	CHA 08:17	ATL 09:23	6%	5%	0.9%	93%
DL 3057 Delta Flight history →	CHA 06:43	ATL 07:51	6%	5%	0.9%	70%
DL 3141 Delta Flight history →	CHA 14:50	ATL 15:52	8%	5%	0.7%	77%
DL 1737 Delta Flight history →	CHA 13:10	ATL 14:08	8%	5%	0.8%	85%
DL 3124 Delta	CHA 18:05	ATL 19:04	11%	5%	0.7%	no record
DL 5309 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CHA 10:01	ATL 11:02	9%	4%	1.2%	91%
DL 5039 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CHA 06:40	ATL 07:36	16%	12%	3.8%	84%
DL 5448 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CHA 08:24	ATL 09:27	31%	16%	2.0%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON