Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, AA 5084 at 06:27, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 5084 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CHA 06:27	DCA 08:19	8%	6%	0.8%	100%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	CHA 05:00 → CLT 06:32AA 5866 · flown by Piedmont	1h 18m Charlotte	CLT 07:50 → DCA 09:35AA 1581	4h 35m	100%	92%
Delta Details →	CHA 05:35 → ATL 06:29DL 1044	3h 11m Atlanta	ATL 09:40 → DCA 11:27DL 380	5h 52m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	CHA 06:43 → ATL 07:51DL 3057	3h 11m Atlanta	ATL 11:02 → DCA 12:51DL 1798	6h 08m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	CHA 06:00 → DTW 07:55DL 4652 · flown by Endeavor	2h 05m Detroit	DTW 10:00 → DCA 11:28DL 2476	5h 28m	96%	88%
United Details →	CHA 06:00 → ORD 06:59UA 4540 · flown by GoJet	2h 59m Chicago	ORD 09:58 → DCA 12:54UA 1904	6h 54m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	CHA 08:17 → ATL 09:23DL 3039	3h 46m Atlanta	ATL 13:09 → DCA 14:56DL 360	6h 39m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	CHA 14:50 → ATL 15:52DL 3141	3h 03m Atlanta	ATL 18:55 → DCA 20:47DL 325	5h 57m	99%	84%
American Details →	CHA 09:19 → CLT 10:56AA 6050 · flown by Piedmont	3h 38m Charlotte	CLT 14:34 → DCA 16:13AA 2839	6h 54m	100%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON