Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: MQ 3900 at 12:13 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 9–19%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3900 CHA 12:13 → DFW 13:19 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2037 CHA 16:03 → DFW 17:15 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3900 Envoy	CHA 12:13	DFW 13:19	8%	3%	0.7%	no record
MQ 4203 Envoy	CHA 19:06	DFW 20:06	9%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 426 American Flight history →	CHA 06:04	DFW 07:24	14%	6%	0.7%	63%
AA 2037 American	CHA 16:03	DFW 17:15	19%	10%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON