Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 4652 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	CHA 06:11	DTW 08:00	6%	3%	0.8%	90%
DL 5117 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	CHA 14:53	DTW 16:42	10%	4%	0.8%	79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CHA 05:35 → ATL 06:29DL 1044	1h 49m Atlanta	ATL 08:18 → DTW 10:17DL 643	4h 42m	100%	92%
American Details →	CHA 06:26 → DCA 08:22AA 5084 · flown by PSA	2h 43m Washington	DCA 11:05 → DTW 12:58AA 4616 · flown by Republic	6h 32m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	CHA 06:36 → ATL 07:33DL 3057	3h 27m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → DTW 12:56DL 1240	6h 20m	99%	90%
United Details →	CHA 05:54 → ORD 06:54UA 4540 · flown by GoJet	3h 56m Chicago	ORD 10:50 → DTW 13:27UA 5756 · flown by SkyWest	7h 33m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	CHA 13:10 → ATL 14:08DL 1737	3h 03m Atlanta	ATL 17:11 → DTW 19:14DL 2067	6h 04m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	CHA 09:53 → ATL 10:54DL 5309 · flown by Endeavor	2h 53m Atlanta	ATL 13:47 → DTW 15:42DL 1031	5h 49m	96%	86%
Delta Details →	CHA 14:50 → ATL 15:52DL 3141	2h 19m Atlanta	ATL 18:11 → DTW 20:13DL 1478	5h 23m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	CHA 06:08 → LGA 08:12DL 4890 · flown by Endeavor	1h 13m New York	LGA 09:25 → DTW 11:24DL 1078	5h 16m	91%	82%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	CHA 18:00 → EWR 20:27UA 4413 · flown by GoJet	55m Newark	EWR 21:22 → DTW 23:31UA 3412 · flown by Republic	5h 31m	73%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON