Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, UA 4413 at 18:00, with a 25% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


UA 4413 United flown by GoJet Flight history →	CHA 18:00	EWR 20:27	25%	9%	1.2%	53%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CHA 05:35 → ATL 06:29DL 1044	1h 49m Atlanta	ATL 08:18 → EWR 10:29DL 2397	4h 54m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	CHA 06:11 → DTW 08:00DL 4652 · flown by Endeavor	2h 15m Detroit	DTW 10:15 → EWR 11:56DL 2577	5h 45m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	CHA 06:36 → ATL 07:33DL 3057	2h 32m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → EWR 12:21DL 2401	5h 45m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	CHA 08:15 → ATL 09:12DL 3039	2h 50m Atlanta	ATL 12:02 → EWR 14:16DL 2312	6h 01m	100%	85%
United Details →	CHA 05:54 → ORD 06:54UA 4540 · flown by GoJet	2h 00m Chicago	ORD 08:54 → EWR 11:57UA 2238	6h 03m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	CHA 09:53 → ATL 10:54DL 5309 · flown by Endeavor	2h 15m Atlanta	ATL 13:09 → EWR 15:24DL 2322	5h 31m	97%	80%
United Details →	CHA 16:32 → IAH 17:42UA 5091 · flown by SkyWest	2h 13m Houston	IAH 19:55 → EWR 00:37 +1UA 1444	8h 05m	92%	79%
Delta Details →	CHA 14:50 → ATL 15:52DL 3141	2h 43m Atlanta	ATL 18:35 → EWR 20:54DL 2498	6h 04m	98%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON