Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 18–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


UA 5086 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	CHA 07:00	IAH 08:23	18%	6%	0.6%	62%
UA 5091 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	CHA 16:32	IAH 17:42	20%	9%	0.6%	63%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Chattanooga). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CHA 05:35 → ATL 06:29DL 1044	3h 36m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → IAH 11:14DL 1682	6h 39m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	CHA 08:15 → ATL 09:11DL 3039	3h 16m Atlanta	ATL 12:27 → IAH 13:33DL 1572	6h 18m	100%	88%
American Details →	CHA 05:00 → CLT 06:32AA 5866 · flown by Piedmont	1h 55m Charlotte	CLT 08:27 → IAH 10:16AA 2445	6h 16m	100%	88%
United Details →	CHA 06:00 → ORD 06:59UA 4540 · flown by GoJet	1h 52m Chicago	ORD 08:51 → IAH 11:51UA 535	6h 51m	96%	87%
American Details →	CHA 09:19 → CLT 10:56AA 6050 · flown by Piedmont	1h 44m Charlotte	CLT 12:40 → IAH 14:18AA 398	5h 59m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	CHA 14:50 → ATL 15:52DL 3141	2h 33m Atlanta	ATL 18:25 → IAH 19:28DL 2327	5h 38m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	CHA 10:01 → ATL 11:02DL 5309 · flown by Endeavor	3h 34m Atlanta	ATL 14:36 → IAH 15:40DL 1223	6h 39m	97%	82%
American Details →	CHA 06:04 → DFW 07:24AA 426	2h 33m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:57 → IAH 11:17AA 2438	6h 13m	98%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON