Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 41 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1349 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–23%.

Safest bet that day WN 1349 MDW 06:00 → DAL 08:20 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2531 ORD 15:45 → DFW 18:05 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1349 Southwest	MDW 06:00	DAL 08:20	2%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 2706 Southwest	MDW 06:01	DAL 08:18	2%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 199 Southwest	MDW 08:21	DAL 10:48	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 539 United Flight history →	ORD 07:15	DFW 09:58	6%	2%	0.5%	82%
UA 528 United Flight history →	ORD 08:45	DFW 11:29	8%	3%	0.5%	79%
WN 320 Southwest	MDW 12:00	DAL 14:19	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 2896 American Flight history →	ORD 06:04	DFW 08:36	8%	3%	1.8%	86%
WN 294 Southwest	MDW 10:05	DAL 12:21	8%	1%	0.6%	no record
AA 760 American Flight history →	ORD 05:00	DFW 07:30	9%	3%	0.4%	89%
WN 1148 Southwest	MDW 11:26	DAL 13:36	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 441 United Flight history →	ORD 10:25	DFW 13:08	9%	3%	0.5%	77%
AA 1022 American	ORD 06:55	DFW 09:21	9%	3%	1.3%	no record
WN 2865 Southwest	MDW 14:50	DAL 17:08	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
F9 1341 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 06:03	DFW 08:36	11%	4%	0.9%	60%
AA 1360 American	ORD 07:13	DFW 09:38	11%	3%	1.3%	no record
UA 2290 United Flight history →	ORD 13:05	DFW 15:48	11%	4%	0.5%	76%
UA 1673 United Flight history →	ORD 19:50	DFW 22:36	11%	5%	0.6%	65%
AA 1555 American Flight history →	ORD 08:30	DFW 11:04	11%	3%	1.8%	71%
WN 3366 Southwest	MDW 16:45	DAL 19:04	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
MQ 3794 Envoy	ORD 19:40	DFW 22:03	11%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 967 American	ORD 08:10	DFW 10:36	12%	3%	1.8%	no record
WN 966 Southwest	MDW 13:45	DAL 15:55	13%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1005 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 19:46	DAL 22:00	13%	3%	0.6%	50%
AA 312 American	ORD 09:40	DFW 12:05	13%	4%	1.8%	no record
UA 793 United Flight history →	ORD 15:40	DFW 18:22	13%	5%	0.5%	68%
WN 2711 Southwest	MDW 17:49	DAL 19:59	14%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 309 United	ORD 14:35	DFW 17:11	14%	4%	0.5%	no record
WN 1356 Southwest	MDW 15:20	DAL 17:30	14%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 1264 American	ORD 10:58	DFW 13:24	15%	3%	1.3%	no record
AA 1106 American Flight history →	ORD 11:19	DFW 13:43	15%	4%	1.3%	41%
AA 3085 American	ORD 12:10	DFW 14:38	15%	4%	1.8%	no record
AA 618 American	ORD 12:12	DFW 14:39	16%	4%	1.8%	no record
AA 1459 American	ORD 10:23	DFW 12:43	17%	4%	1.3%	no record
AA 2429 American Flight history →	ORD 14:58	DFW 17:44	19%	4%	1.3%	73%
AA 391 American	ORD 13:47	DFW 16:13	19%	4%	1.3%	no record
AA 1559 American Flight history →	ORD 18:28	DFW 21:05	19%	6%	1.3%	41%
AA 2451 American	ORD 14:00	DFW 16:26	20%	4%	1.3%	no record
AA 2499 American Flight history →	ORD 17:30	DFW 19:58	22%	6%	1.3%	56%
AA 2281 American Flight history →	ORD 21:09	DFW 23:29	23%	5%	1.8%	63%
AA 1161 American	ORD 15:56	DFW 18:23	25%	5%	1.8%	no record
AA 2531 American Flight history →	ORD 15:45	DFW 18:05	26%	5%	1.3%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON