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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 38 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 607 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–23%.

Safest bet that day AA 607 ORD 06:00 → LAX 08:20 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 3063 ORD 19:21 → LAX 21:45 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time
Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
AA 607 American Flight history → ORD 06:00 LAX 08:20 7% 2% 0.7% 88%
DL 1556 Delta Flight history → ORD 07:29 LAX 10:00 8% 2% 0.5% 80%
UA 2373 United Flight history → ORD 06:00 LAX 08:27 8% 2% 0.6% 89%
AA 1009 American ORD 06:56 LAX 09:31 8% 2% 0.7% no record
UA 2361 United Flight history → ORD 07:00 LAX 09:33 8% 2% 0.6% 90%
UA 1304 United Flight history → ORD 08:40 SNA 11:21 9% 3% 0.5% 79%
WN 865 Southwest MDW 10:15 LAX 12:36 9% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 151 Southwest MDW 12:29 LAX 14:59 9% 2% 0.5% no record
UA 2814 United Flight history → ORD 08:48 LAX 11:26 10% 2% 0.6% 82%
WN 851 Southwest MDW 11:59 LGB 14:25 11% 2% 0.6% no record
AA 1920 American ORD 08:00 SNA 10:29 11% 3% 0.6% no record
AA 3008 American Flight history → ORD 12:06 LAX 14:37 11% 3% 0.6% 79%
WN 1241 Southwest MDW 17:19 BUR 19:39 11% 3% 0.7% no record
AA 2012 American Flight history → ORD 08:10 LAX 10:35 11% 3% 0.7% 70%
UA 2170 United ORD 10:37 LAX 12:57 12% 3% 0.6% no record
DL 967 Delta Flight history → ORD 14:42 LAX 17:14 12% 3% 0.5% 68%
UA 1363 United Flight history → ORD 13:00 LAX 15:34 13% 3% 0.5% 83%
WN 2784 Southwest MDW 17:19 ONT 19:31 13% 3% 0.6% no record
AA 1979 American Flight history → ORD 10:20 LAX 12:35 13% 3% 0.7% 74%
UA 374 United Flight history → ORD 14:30 LAX 17:05 14% 4% 0.5% 80%
UA 576 United Flight history → ORD 15:47 LAX 18:20 14% 4% 0.5% 76%
UA 308 United Flight history → ORD 19:45 SNA 22:19 14% 3% 0.6% 84%
UA 542 United ORD 15:18 LAX 17:45 15% 4% 0.5% no record
DL 1775 Delta ORD 18:59 LAX 21:30 16% 5% 0.5% no record
UA 2499 United Flight history → ORD 20:18 LAX 22:55 16% 5% 0.6% 58%
AA 2903 American ORD 13:44 LAX 16:05 16% 4% 0.6% no record
AA 1916 American ORD 11:49 SNA 14:14 16% 4% 0.6% no record
UA 2494 United ORD 16:47 LAX 19:12 17% 4% 0.5% no record
AA 1179 American Flight history → ORD 18:01 SNA 20:24 17% 3% 0.7% 74%
UA 1967 United Flight history → ORD 18:10 LAX 20:40 18% 5% 0.6% 69%
UA 658 United Flight history → ORD 20:18 ONT 22:51 18% 6% 0.6% 60%
WN 4743 Southwest MDW 20:50 LAX 23:12 18% 3% 0.6% no record
AA 529 American Flight history → ORD 15:21 LAX 17:43 19% 6% 0.6% 59%
WN 997 Southwest MDW 17:22 LAX 19:40 19% 3% 0.5% no record
UA 1317 United Flight history → ORD 16:16 SNA 18:38 19% 4% 0.5% 70%
AA 1114 American ORD 21:08 LAX 23:26 22% 5% 0.7% no record
AA 2364 American Flight history → ORD 19:08 LAX 21:33 22% 6% 0.7% 59%
AA 3063 American Flight history → ORD 19:21 LAX 21:45 23% 6% 0.7% 58%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
UnitedDetails → ORD 05:00 → DEN 06:41UA 2666 59m Denver DEN 07:40 → SNA 09:07UA 2666 6h 07m 97% 89%
DeltaDetails → ORD 07:45 → SLC 10:15DL 2231 50m Salt Lake City SLC 11:05 → LGB 11:59DL 1116 6h 14m 90% 80%
AmericanDetails → ORD 15:22 → PHX 17:05AA 2624 58m Phoenix PHX 18:03 → SNA 19:32AA 2471 6h 10m 79% 67%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON