Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 49 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 961 at 06:37 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 7–16%.

Safest bet that day WN 961 MDW 06:37 → BWI 09:29 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1557 ORD 18:11 → BWI 21:12 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 961 Southwest	MDW 06:37	BWI 09:29	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2608 Southwest	MDW 06:11	DCA 09:02	2%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 3292 Southwest	MDW 09:34	BWI 12:29	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1295 Southwest	MDW 08:15	DCA 11:13	3%	1%	0.5%	no record
YX 4494 Republic	ORD 06:12	DCA 09:34	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
AA 3762 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 07:11	BWI 10:24	4%	1%	0.6%	93%
WN 294 Southwest	MDW 12:40	BWI 15:32	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 1269 United Flight history →	ORD 06:30	BWI 09:27	5%	1%	0.5%	94%
UA 2277 United Flight history →	ORD 08:40	IAD 11:52	5%	2%	0.5%	92%
WN 4832 Southwest	MDW 15:11	BWI 18:05	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 4253 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 09:58	BWI 13:03	5%	2%	0.6%	78%
WN 120 Southwest	MDW 11:05	DCA 13:59	6%	2%	0.5%	no record
AA 495 American	ORD 06:56	DCA 10:12	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 482 United Flight history →	ORD 07:00	DCA 09:59	7%	2%	0.5%	86%
YX 4758 Republic	ORD 14:38	BWI 17:47	7%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 4663 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 19:32	BWI 22:42	7%	3%	0.7%	79%
UA 1077 United Flight history →	ORD 07:15	DCA 10:13	7%	2%	0.5%	92%
UA 2653 United Flight history →	ORD 10:51	BWI 13:57	7%	2%	0.5%	83%
WN 3946 Southwest	MDW 13:07	DCA 16:01	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 202 United	ORD 09:03	DCA 12:06	8%	3%	0.5%	no record
AA 315 American	ORD 09:50	DCA 12:55	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1486 United	ORD 10:49	IAD 13:45	8%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 1904 United	ORD 09:58	DCA 12:54	8%	3%	0.5%	no record
AA 523 American Flight history →	ORD 08:52	DCA 12:00	8%	3%	0.6%	79%
UA 2668 United Flight history →	ORD 11:15	DCA 14:22	9%	4%	0.5%	69%
UA 1128 United	ORD 13:06	IAD 16:13	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1922 United	ORD 22:07	IAD 01:10	9%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 2689 Southwest	MDW 18:23	BWI 21:08	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 2345 American Flight history →	ORD 08:00	DCA 10:59	9%	3%	0.6%	77%
AA 1200 American Flight history →	ORD 10:22	DCA 13:28	9%	3%	0.6%	61%
UA 752 United Flight history →	ORD 12:45	DCA 15:52	10%	4%	0.5%	65%
UA 587 United Flight history →	ORD 14:55	IAD 17:51	10%	3%	0.6%	73%
WN 336 Southwest	MDW 16:04	DCA 18:57	11%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 1941 United Flight history →	ORD 15:00	DCA 18:11	12%	5%	0.6%	66%
UA 1314 United Flight history →	ORD 14:00	DCA 17:12	12%	5%	0.5%	56%
UA 2737 United	ORD 14:29	BWI 17:32	13%	4%	0.5%	no record
UA 2202 United Flight history →	ORD 18:12	IAD 21:22	13%	4%	0.5%	57%
UA 304 United	ORD 19:57	IAD 22:52	13%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 2160 United Flight history →	ORD 19:45	DCA 22:55	13%	5%	0.5%	56%
UA 2761 United	ORD 17:15	DCA 20:22	13%	5%	0.5%	no record
UA 1369 United Flight history →	ORD 18:00	DCA 21:10	13%	5%	0.5%	50%
AA 1187 American Flight history →	ORD 20:55	DCA 23:59	13%	5%	0.7%	58%
WN 4931 Southwest	MDW 20:35	DCA 23:24	15%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 789 American	ORD 13:07	DCA 16:11	15%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 2769 American Flight history →	ORD 14:54	DCA 17:59	15%	4%	0.6%	74%
AA 514 American	ORD 17:45	DCA 20:54	15%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 489 American Flight history →	ORD 17:11	DCA 20:12	16%	6%	0.7%	70%
AA 535 American	ORD 20:52	DCA 23:46	16%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 1557 United	ORD 18:11	BWI 21:12	16%	6%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON