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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:10, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Austin on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 1 h behind Charleston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CHS 05:10 → ATL 06:17DL 3055 1h 53m Atlanta ATL 08:10 → AUS 09:27DL 2976 5h 17m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → CHS 06:15 → ATL 07:25DL 2124 3h 40m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → AUS 12:25DL 2011 7h 10m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → CHS 09:41 → ATL 11:00DL 5450 · flown by Endeavor 3h 15m Atlanta ATL 14:15 → AUS 15:50DL 1397 7h 09m 100% 90%
UnitedDetails → CHS 07:58 → ORD 09:29UA 2333 2h 18m Chicago ORD 11:47 → AUS 14:41UA 1061 7h 43m 98% 90%
AmericanDetails → CHS 05:58 → MIA 07:46AA 1763 1h 37m Miami MIA 09:23 → AUS 11:29AA 812 6h 31m 100% 89%
AmericanDetails → CHS 08:48 → CLT 10:15AA 5817 · flown by Piedmont 1h 53m Charlotte CLT 12:08 → AUS 13:55AA 1052 6h 07m 100% 89%
UnitedDetails → CHS 06:00 → EWR 07:59UA 1289 1h 26m Newark EWR 09:25 → AUS 12:28UA 1238 7h 28m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → CHS 06:00 → JFK 08:01DL 5445 · flown by Endeavor 3h 09m New York JFK 11:10 → AUS 14:06DL 2323 9h 06m 97% 88%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → CHS 16:05 → DEN 17:49UA 557 50m Denver DEN 18:39 → AUS 21:57UA 1942 6h 52m 74% 63%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON