Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 3298 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 3298 CHS 05:00 → CLT 06:01 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest AA 3117 CHS 17:52 → CLT 19:02 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3298 American Flight history →	CHS 05:00	CLT 06:01	8%	3%	0.8%	98%
OH 5266 PSA	CHS 10:16	CLT 11:25	9%	3%	0.8%	no record
OH 5562 PSA	CHS 06:23	CLT 07:29	9%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 1731 American Flight history →	CHS 10:15	CLT 11:22	10%	3%	1.6%	91%
OH 5309 PSA	CHS 12:14	CLT 13:22	13%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 2975 American	CHS 08:08	CLT 09:15	13%	3%	1.6%	no record
AA 1586 American Flight history →	CHS 01:24	CLT 02:44	13%	6%	0.7%	76%
OH 5209 PSA	CHS 13:26	CLT 14:35	15%	4%	0.8%	no record
OH 5166 PSA	CHS 13:59	CLT 15:06	17%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 3057 American	CHS 15:40	CLT 16:54	20%	3%	1.6%	no record
AA 3117 American Flight history →	CHS 17:52	CLT 19:02	22%	4%	1.2%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON