Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 2773 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–19%.

Safest bet that day AA 2773 CHS 06:00 → DCA 07:45 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OH 5566 CHS 16:21 → DCA 17:51 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2773 American	CHS 06:00	DCA 07:45	6%	3%	0.7%	no record
MQ 3891 Envoy	CHS 11:14	DCA 12:53	8%	3%	0.9%	no record
AA 5607 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CHS 13:58	DCA 15:28	17%	6%	1.2%	85%
OH 5566 PSA	CHS 16:21	DCA 17:51	19%	6%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON