Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:15, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Denver on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 58% of the time.

Nonstops that day


WN 2026 Southwest	CHS 13:20	DEN 15:01	17%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 557 United Flight history →	CHS 16:05	DEN 17:49	18%	3%	0.6%	74%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 2 h behind Charleston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CHS 05:10 → ATL 06:17DL 3055	3h 37m Atlanta	ATL 09:54 → DEN 11:05DL 995	7h 55m	100%	92%
Delta Details →	CHS 08:20 → ATL 09:34DL 789	3h 21m Atlanta	ATL 12:55 → DEN 14:00DL 957	7h 40m	100%	92%
Delta Details →	CHS 09:41 → ATL 11:00DL 5450 · flown by Endeavor	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 13:55 → DEN 14:58DL 530	7h 17m	100%	91%
American Details →	CHS 08:48 → CLT 10:15AA 5817 · flown by Piedmont	2h 54m Charlotte	CLT 13:09 → DEN 14:39AA 696	7h 51m	100%	90%
United Details →	CHS 06:00 → EWR 07:59UA 1289	3h 56m Newark	EWR 11:55 → DEN 14:13UA 1999	10h 13m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	CHS 06:15 → ATL 07:25DL 2124	58m Atlanta	ATL 08:23 → DEN 09:31DL 346	5h 16m	96%	89%
Delta Details →	CHS 17:17 → MSP 19:22DL 2463	2h 53m Minneapolis	MSP 22:15 → DEN 23:27DL 1705	8h 10m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	CHS 14:27 → ATL 15:43DL 2179	3h 42m Atlanta	ATL 19:25 → DEN 20:43DL 746	8h 16m	99%	89%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	CHS 19:46 → IAD 21:30UA 4322 · flown by CommuteAir	53m Dulles	IAD 22:23 → DEN 00:30 +1UA 495	6h 44m	58%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON