Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 1435 at 06:46 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–20%.

Safest bet that day AA 1435 CHS 06:46 → DFW 08:52 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 2166 CHS 16:53 → DFW 18:30 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1435 American Flight history →	CHS 06:46	DFW 08:52	7%	3%	0.7%	92%
AA 2158 American	CHS 13:01	DFW 14:46	18%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 2166 American Flight history →	CHS 16:53	DFW 18:30	20%	5%	0.7%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON