Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 4–5% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 4095 Southwest	CHS 07:15	MDW 08:42	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 188 Southwest	CHS 07:31	MDW 08:45	5%	1%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Charleston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CHS 07:25 → DTW 09:29DL 5092 · flown by Endeavor	2h 52m Detroit	DTW 12:21 → MDW 12:45DL 4688 · flown by Endeavor	6h 20m	96%	88%
Delta Details →	CHS 06:15 → ATL 07:25DL 2124	3h 35m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MDW 11:56DL 2417	6h 41m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	CHS 05:10 → ATL 06:17DL 3055	2h 52m Atlanta	ATL 09:09 → MDW 10:05DL 1063	5h 55m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	CHS 11:18 → ATL 12:27DL 3091	2h 48m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → MDW 16:15DL 1728	5h 57m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	CHS 17:00 → ATL 18:19DL 1381	2h 56m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076	6h 15m	99%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON