Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 2200 at 05:58 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–18%.

Safest bet that day AA 2200 CHS 05:58 → PHL 08:00 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 499 CHS 18:20 → PHL 20:20 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2200 American	CHS 05:58	PHL 08:00	5%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 1182 American	CHS 07:05	PHL 09:09	8%	3%	0.7%	no record
OH 5492 PSA	CHS 11:49	PHL 13:47	11%	6%	0.9%	no record
AA 1328 American	CHS 13:11	PHL 15:12	15%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 2447 American Flight history →	CHS 13:09	PHL 15:04	16%	4%	0.6%	75%
AA 499 American	CHS 18:20	PHL 20:20	18%	4%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON