Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, AA 1039 at 07:59, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 1039 American Flight history →	CID 07:59	CLT 11:09	16%	6%	0.4%	89%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 1 h ahead of Cedar Rapids). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CID 06:15 → MSP 07:30DL 5248 · flown by Endeavor	3h 00m Minneapolis	MSP 10:30 → CLT 13:57DL 2819	6h 42m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	CID 05:50 → ATL 08:52DL 2518	3h 28m Atlanta	ATL 12:20 → CLT 13:31DL 2157	6h 41m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	CID 17:00 → MSP 18:15DL 4906 · flown by Endeavor	1h 59m Minneapolis	MSP 20:14 → CLT 23:44DL 2929	5h 44m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	CID 10:54 → MSP 12:09DL 4899 · flown by Endeavor	2h 21m Minneapolis	MSP 14:30 → CLT 18:02DL 2820	6h 08m	98%	86%
American Details →	CID 05:01 → ORD 06:28AA 3430 · flown by Envoy	2h 44m Chicago	ORD 09:12 → CLT 12:21AA 2080	6h 20m	99%	85%
American Details →	CID 05:01 → DFW 07:22AA 3564 · flown by Envoy	1h 04m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:26 → CLT 12:06AA 2168	6h 05m	93%	80%
American Details →	CID 10:35 → DFW 12:48AA 4297 · flown by Envoy	1h 32m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:20 → CLT 17:53AA 3227	6h 18m	100%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON