Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, MQ 3345 at 13:34, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


MQ 3345 Envoy	CID 13:34	DCA 16:50	10%	3%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Cedar Rapids). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CID 06:15 → MSP 07:29DL 5248 · flown by Endeavor	2h 56m Minneapolis	MSP 10:25 → DCA 13:48DL 2983	6h 33m	98%	88%
American Details →	CID 05:02 → ORD 06:29AA 3430 · flown by Envoy	2h 23m Chicago	ORD 08:52 → DCA 12:04AA 2700	6h 02m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	CID 05:50 → ATL 08:52DL 2518	2h 20m Atlanta	ATL 11:12 → DCA 12:57DL 1961	6h 07m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	CID 16:29 → MSP 17:51DL 4906 · flown by Endeavor	2h 39m Minneapolis	MSP 20:30 → DCA 23:56DL 2961	6h 27m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	CID 10:54 → MSP 12:08DL 4899 · flown by Endeavor	2h 29m Minneapolis	MSP 14:37 → DCA 18:09DL 2963	6h 15m	98%	85%
American Details →	CID 05:02 → DFW 07:23AA 3564 · flown by Envoy	2h 15m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:38 → DCA 13:49AA 2399	7h 47m	98%	84%
American Details →	CID 10:34 → DFW 12:46AA 4297 · flown by Envoy	2h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:48 → DCA 18:46AA 2520	7h 12m	100%	78%
American Details →	CID 07:57 → CLT 11:07AA 1039	3h 27m Charlotte	CLT 14:34 → DCA 16:13AA 2839	7h 16m	96%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON