Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 6–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 4679 CID 05:33 → DEN 06:43 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 514 CID 15:16 → DEN 16:30 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 4679 SkyWest	CID 05:33	DEN 06:43	6%	4%	0.2%	no record
UA 1500 United Flight history →	CID 08:50	DEN 10:04	11%	4%	0.2%	82%
UA 514 United Flight history →	CID 15:16	DEN 16:30	11%	4%	0.6%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON