Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 3564 at 05:02 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 9–18%.

Safest bet that day AA 3564 CID 05:02 → DFW 07:23 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest OO 4963 CID 16:06 → DFW 18:17 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3564 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CID 05:02	DFW 07:23	5%	4%	0.3%	91%
MQ 3849 Envoy	CID 07:40	DFW 10:05	6%	3%	0.3%	no record
OO 6189 SkyWest	CID 06:12	DFW 08:32	7%	6%	0.6%	no record
AA 4297 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CID 10:35	DFW 12:48	8%	2%	0.8%	96%
AA 4318 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CID 19:28	DFW 21:41	9%	2%	0.7%	67%
OO 4963 SkyWest	CID 16:06	DFW 18:17	18%	6%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON