Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 3430 at 05:02 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–20%.

Safest bet that day AA 3430 CID 05:02 → ORD 06:29 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest OO 5615 CID 18:50 → ORD 20:09 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3430 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CID 05:02	ORD 06:29	5%	3%	0.2%	91%
MQ 3512 Envoy	CID 05:07	ORD 06:23	5%	4%	0.2%	no record
OO 5715 SkyWest	CID 06:44	ORD 08:10	8%	4%	0.4%	no record
MQ 3732 Envoy	CID 11:56	ORD 13:11	10%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 3458 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CID 20:34	ORD 21:50	11%	3%	0.8%	80%
OO 4685 SkyWest	CID 10:59	ORD 12:17	11%	5%	0.8%	no record
UA 2401 United	CID 07:52	ORD 09:11	11%	4%	0.4%	no record
OO 6302 SkyWest	CID 14:03	ORD 15:25	15%	6%	0.7%	no record
OO 6298 SkyWest	CID 12:26	ORD 13:44	15%	5%	0.7%	no record
OO 6285 SkyWest	CID 13:27	ORD 14:48	16%	6%	0.7%	no record
OO 9909 SkyWest	CID 12:42	ORD 13:38	17%	5%	0.7%	no record
MQ 3385 Envoy	CID 18:18	ORD 19:46	18%	4%	0.7%	no record
OO 4777 SkyWest	CID 15:35	ORD 16:54	18%	6%	0.7%	no record
OO 5615 SkyWest	CID 18:50	ORD 20:09	20%	6%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON