Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 8–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4196 CID 07:51 → PHX 09:36 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 4983 CID 07:50 → PHX 09:16 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4196 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CID 07:51	PHX 09:36	8%	4%	0.3%	94%
AA 3809 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CID 14:36	PHX 16:11	11%	2%	0.7%	93%
AA 4983 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	CID 07:50	PHX 09:16	13%	8%	0.4%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON