Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 2–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 4915 CLE 06:53 → DEN 08:11 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3550 CLE 18:01 → DEN 19:10 · 9% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 5% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4915 Southwest	CLE 06:53	DEN 08:11	2%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 2246 United Flight history →	CLE 11:10	DEN 12:26	4%	2%	0.5%	89%
UA 690 United Flight history →	CLE 08:55	DEN 10:10	4%	2%	0.5%	92%
DL 499 Delta	CLE 10:08	DEN 11:20	4%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 486 United Flight history →	CLE 16:38	DEN 18:03	6%	3%	0.5%	82%
WN 3550 Southwest	CLE 18:01	DEN 19:10	9%	2%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON