Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 5–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 1590 CLE 05:57 → DFW 08:00 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest AA 1554 CLE 17:15 → DFW 19:12 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1590 American Flight history →	CLE 05:57	DFW 08:00	5%	2%	0.6%	84%
AA 2331 American Flight history →	CLE 07:09	DFW 09:08	6%	3%	0.6%	79%
AA 1172 American Flight history →	CLE 11:49	DFW 13:29	9%	3%	0.6%	79%
AA 1554 American Flight history →	CLE 17:15	DFW 19:12	13%	5%	0.7%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON