Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 601 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–16%.

Safest bet that day UA 601 CLE 07:15 → EWR 08:47 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest UA 1274 CLE 19:12 → EWR 20:48 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 601 United Flight history →	CLE 07:15	EWR 08:47	4%	2%	0.6%	94%
UA 2468 United Flight history →	CLE 08:15	EWR 09:48	5%	2%	0.6%	92%
UA 2782 United	CLE 12:49	EWR 14:40	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
YX 3658 Republic	CLE 17:12	EWR 19:06	10%	3%	0.8%	no record
UA 1892 United Flight history →	CLE 15:19	EWR 17:00	11%	3%	0.6%	77%
UA 1274 United	CLE 19:12	EWR 20:48	16%	4%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON