Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 715 at 07:25 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–16%.

Safest bet that day UA 715 CLE 07:25 → FLL 10:21 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest F9 3736 CLE 21:03 → FLL 00:12 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 715 United Flight history →	CLE 07:25	FLL 10:21	5%	2%	0.6%	94%
B6 2289 JetBlue Flight history →	CLE 07:50	FLL 10:45	8%	3%	0.8%	95%
F9 3736 Frontier Flight history →	CLE 21:03	FLL 00:12	16%	6%	1.9%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON