tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 2–6% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1252 United Flight history → CLE 06:00 IAD 07:15 2% 1% 0.5% 97%
UA 780 United Flight history → CLE 15:02 IAD 16:20 6% 2% 0.5% 84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CLE 08:05 → ATL 09:55DL 349 2h 22m Atlanta ATL 12:17 → IAD 14:01DL 2135 5h 56m 100% 93%
UnitedDetails → CLE 07:00 → ORD 07:36UA 490 1h 04m Chicago ORD 08:40 → IAD 11:52UA 2277 4h 52m 97% 91%
UnitedDetails → CLE 07:25 → FLL 10:22UA 715 1h 51m Fort Lauderdale FLL 12:13 → IAD 14:49UA 1421 7h 24m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → CLE 05:35 → ATL 07:22DL 2734 2h 28m Atlanta ATL 09:50 → IAD 11:37DL 1444 6h 02m 99% 91%
UnitedDetails → CLE 08:47 → ORD 09:20UA 656 3h 46m Chicago ORD 13:06 → IAD 16:14UA 1128 7h 27m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → CLE 10:15 → ATL 11:59DL 1500 3h 00m Atlanta ATL 14:59 → IAD 16:46DL 1695 6h 31m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → CLE 18:05 → ORD 18:44UA 1673 3h 23m Chicago ORD 22:07 → IAD 01:11 +1UA 1922 7h 06m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → CLE 07:15 → EWR 08:47UA 601 1h 05m Newark EWR 09:52 → IAD 11:10UA 1618 3h 55m 96% 88%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON