Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 7–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 1141 CLE 13:49 → LAS 15:05 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 3231 CLE 19:11 → LAS 20:56 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1141 Southwest	CLE 13:49	LAS 15:05	7%	2%	0.4%	no record
F9 1821 Frontier Flight history →	CLE 01:30	LAS 03:05	8%	4%	0.7%	75%
F9 3231 Frontier Flight history →	CLE 19:11	LAS 20:56	10%	5%	0.8%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON