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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: United via Denver, leaving 08:55, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Los Angeles on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 55% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1041 United CLE 07:21 LAX 09:33 6% 2% 0.6% no record
UA 679 United Flight history → CLE 15:42 LAX 17:38 6% 3% 0.6% 92%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 3 h behind Cleveland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CLE 08:05 → ATL 09:55DL 349 2h 45m Atlanta ATL 12:40 → LAX 14:12DL 895 9h 07m 100% 93%
AmericanDetails → CLE 10:02 → JFK 11:54AA 4588 · flown by Republic 2h 46m New York JFK 14:40 → LAX 17:48AA 255 10h 46m 100% 92%
UnitedDetails → CLE 06:00 → IAD 07:15UA 1252 2h 16m Dulles IAD 09:31 → LAX 12:10UA 657 9h 10m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → CLE 06:00 → MSP 07:04DL 1357 2h 16m Minneapolis MSP 09:20 → LAX 11:10DL 2102 8h 10m 99% 90%
AmericanDetails → CLE 05:57 → PHL 07:43AA 3302 3h 17m Philadelphia PHL 11:00 → LAX 13:46AA 2408 10h 49m 98% 90%
UnitedDetails → CLE 08:55 → DEN 10:10UA 690 3h 16m Denver DEN 13:26 → LAX 14:57UA 774 9h 02m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → CLE 10:15 → ATL 11:59DL 1500 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 14:45 → LAX 16:17DL 753 9h 02m 99% 90%
AmericanDetails → CLE 05:57 → DFW 08:00AA 1590 2h 45m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:45 → LAX 12:09AA 3181 9h 12m 100% 89%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → CLE 15:03 → PHL 16:43AA 5861 · flown by Piedmont 47m Philadelphia PHL 17:30 → LAX 19:57AA 3123 7h 54m 55% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON