Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 4677 at 06:37 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–15%.

Safest bet that day AA 4677 CLE 06:37 → LGA 08:25 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest YX 4505 CLE 19:55 → LGA 21:39 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4677 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CLE 06:37	LGA 08:25	5%	2%	0.7%	91%
YX 4372 Republic	CLE 12:10	LGA 14:10	6%	3%	0.6%	no record
YX 5773 Republic	CLE 13:00	LGA 14:52	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 2764 Delta	CLE 13:51	LGA 15:23	11%	4%	0.6%	no record
YX 5767 Republic	CLE 16:18	LGA 18:10	11%	4%	0.7%	no record
YX 4505 Republic	CLE 19:55	LGA 21:39	15%	4%	0.7%	no record
DL 5177 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CLE 06:00	LGA 07:42	13%	7%	6.3%	87%
DL 5242 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CLE 16:15	LGA 18:00	16%	10%	10.6%	84%
DL 5193 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CLE 10:17	LGA 11:59	19%	15%	2.1%	81%
DL 5045 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CLE 13:00	LGA 14:51	26%	14%	7.5%	74%
DL 5174 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CLE 19:26	LGA 21:14	46%	28%	18.8%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON