Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 2636 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–18%.

Safest bet that day UA 2636 CLE 08:00 → MCO 10:27 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest F9 3916 CLE 20:05 → MCO 22:48 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2636 United Flight history →	CLE 08:00	MCO 10:27	5%	2%	0.8%	92%
F9 2668 Frontier Flight history →	CLE 06:00	MCO 08:31	6%	3%	1.2%	83%
F9 3916 Frontier Flight history →	CLE 20:05	MCO 22:48	18%	9%	3.6%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON