tailodds FORECAST
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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: one nonstop, AA 2887 at 06:01, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 2887 American Flight history → CLE 06:01 MIA 09:00 5% 2% 0.7% 96%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → CLE 06:00 → IAD 07:15UA 1252 1h 30m Dulles IAD 08:45 → MIA 11:35UA 1073 5h 35m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → CLE 06:00 → MSP 07:04DL 1357 1h 59m Minneapolis MSP 09:03 → MIA 13:40DL 793 7h 40m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → CLE 05:35 → ATL 07:22DL 2734 1h 33m Atlanta ATL 08:55 → MIA 10:57DL 1510 5h 22m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → CLE 07:05 → ATL 08:55DL 2838 2h 05m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332 5h 57m 99% 89%
AmericanDetails → CLE 06:37 → LGA 08:25AA 4677 · flown by Republic 2h 47m New York LGA 11:12 → MIA 14:29AA 2378 7h 52m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → CLE 05:57 → PHL 07:43AA 3302 3h 40m Philadelphia PHL 11:23 → MIA 14:24AA 1989 8h 27m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → CLE 05:57 → DFW 08:00AA 1590 2h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:20 → MIA 14:29AA 1454 8h 32m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → CLE 07:00 → ORD 07:36UA 490 2h 57m Chicago ORD 10:33 → MIA 14:57UA 1620 7h 57m 99% 86%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → CLE 17:15 → JFK 19:09DL 4975 · flown by Endeavor 46m New York JFK 19:55 → MIA 23:37DL 1428 6h 22m 60% 48%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON