Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 2112 at 05:17 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–15%.

Safest bet that day UA 2112 CLE 05:17 → ORD 05:49 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1673 CLE 18:05 → ORD 18:44 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2112 United	CLE 05:17	ORD 05:49	3%	2%	0.5%	no record
MQ 3841 Envoy	CLE 05:33	ORD 05:59	5%	2%	0.7%	no record
UA 490 United Flight history →	CLE 07:00	ORD 07:36	5%	2%	0.5%	86%
UA 656 United Flight history →	CLE 08:47	ORD 09:20	6%	2%	0.5%	90%
AA 6363 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	CLE 09:44	ORD 10:30	6%	3%	0.6%	76%
UA 472 United	CLE 10:36	ORD 11:03	6%	2%	0.5%	no record
OO 4689 SkyWest	CLE 12:25	ORD 13:04	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
OO 6319 SkyWest	CLE 14:53	ORD 15:20	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 2443 United Flight history →	CLE 14:05	ORD 14:41	9%	3%	0.5%	68%
OO 4932 SkyWest	CLE 13:11	ORD 13:35	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
OO 4904 SkyWest	CLE 17:02	ORD 17:27	10%	4%	0.6%	no record
MQ 3912 Envoy	CLE 20:44	ORD 21:12	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 8127 United	CLE 16:17	ORD 16:55	11%	3%	0.5%	no record
OO 4748 SkyWest	CLE 19:44	ORD 20:23	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 1673 United Flight history →	CLE 18:05	ORD 18:44	15%	4%	0.5%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON