Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: United via O'Hare, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Seattle on time.

Nonstops that day


AS 274 Alaska Flight history →	CLE 07:03	SEA 09:11	20%	3%	0.7%	73%
AS 216 Alaska Flight history →	CLE 17:32	SEA 19:41	22%	4%	0.7%	59%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 3 h behind Cleveland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CLE 08:05 → ATL 09:55DL 349	2h 38m Atlanta	ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629	9h 45m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	CLE 06:00 → MSP 07:04DL 1357	2h 01m Minneapolis	MSP 09:05 → SEA 10:59DL 868	7h 59m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	CLE 06:05 → BOS 08:07DL 5684 · flown by Republic	3h 22m Boston	BOS 11:29 → SEA 14:50DL 332	11h 45m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	CLE 10:15 → ATL 11:59DL 1500	2h 39m Atlanta	ATL 14:38 → SEA 16:49DL 481	9h 34m	98%	88%
Frontier Details →	CLE 01:30 → LAS 03:05F9 1821	2h 49m Las Vegas	LAS 05:54 → SEA 08:57F9 4203	10h 27m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	CLE 12:37 → ATL 14:29DL 2978	2h 16m Atlanta	ATL 16:45 → SEA 19:05DL 472	9h 28m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	CLE 05:35 → ATL 07:22DL 2734	2h 28m Atlanta	ATL 09:50 → SEA 12:13DL 774	9h 38m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	CLE 11:46 → JFK 13:30DL 5018 · flown by Endeavor	3h 30m New York	JFK 17:00 → SEA 20:36DL 740	11h 50m	98%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON