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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:35, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching San Francisco on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1250 United CLE 08:45 SFO 11:06 6% 2% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Cleveland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
JetBlueDetails → CLE 06:25 → JFK 08:02B6 2769 2h 28m New York JFK 10:30 → SFO 14:08B6 215 10h 43m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → CLE 06:00 → MSP 07:04DL 1357 3h 56m Minneapolis MSP 11:00 → SFO 13:09DL 2074 10h 09m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → CLE 08:05 → ATL 09:55DL 349 2h 08m Atlanta ATL 12:03 → SFO 13:52DL 672 8h 47m 100% 90%
UnitedDetails → CLE 06:00 → IAD 07:15UA 1252 2h 17m Dulles IAD 09:32 → SFO 12:06UA 1773 9h 06m 99% 89%
AmericanDetails → CLE 10:52 → PHL 12:28AA 5847 · flown by Piedmont 3h 17m Philadelphia PHL 15:45 → SFO 18:32AA 3295 10h 40m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → CLE 12:37 → ATL 14:29DL 2978 3h 31m Atlanta ATL 18:00 → SFO 19:56DL 495 10h 19m 100% 88%
JetBlueDetails → CLE 11:29 → BOS 13:33B6 2040 3h 27m Boston BOS 17:00 → SFO 20:34B6 733 12h 05m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → CLE 05:35 → ATL 07:22DL 2734 1h 03m Atlanta ATL 08:25 → SFO 10:20DL 693 7h 45m 96% 88%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → CLE 10:26 → DTW 11:27DL 5192 · flown by Endeavor 48m Detroit DTW 12:15 → SFO 14:17DL 469 6h 51m 74% 65%
AmericanDetails → CLE 15:03 → PHL 16:43AA 5861 · flown by Piedmont 1h 01m Philadelphia PHL 17:44 → SFO 20:40AA 2045 8h 37m 66% 55%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON