tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 2–6% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1147 Southwest CLE 07:18 STL 07:58 2% 1% 0.4% no record
WN 4142 Southwest CLE 19:39 STL 20:16 6% 2% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 1 h behind Cleveland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CLE 06:00 → MSP 07:04DL 1357 1h 59m Minneapolis MSP 09:03 → STL 10:41DL 1289 5h 41m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → CLE 07:05 → ATL 08:55DL 2838 2h 45m Atlanta ATL 11:40 → STL 12:17DL 566 6h 12m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → CLE 05:35 → ATL 07:22DL 2734 1h 42m Atlanta ATL 09:04 → STL 09:43DL 1400 5h 08m 98% 90%
AmericanDetails → CLE 05:57 → PHL 07:43AA 3302 1h 37m Philadelphia PHL 09:20 → STL 10:44AA 1739 5h 47m 98% 90%
UnitedDetails → CLE 07:00 → ORD 07:36UA 490 3h 27m Chicago ORD 11:03 → STL 12:27UA 1044 6h 27m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → CLE 10:15 → ATL 11:59DL 1500 3h 04m Atlanta ATL 15:03 → STL 15:52DL 543 6h 37m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → CLE 19:00 → ATL 20:49DL 1350 2h 21m Atlanta ATL 23:10 → STL 23:53DL 1403 5h 53m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → CLE 12:37 → ATL 14:29DL 2978 2h 41m Atlanta ATL 17:10 → STL 17:53DL 1393 6h 16m 99% 87%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON