tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: F9 2683 at 10:09 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
F9 2683 Frontier Flight history → CLE 10:09 TPA 13:04 11% 4% 2.3% 80%
F9 1491 Frontier Flight history → CLE 18:20 TPA 20:57 22% 9% 2.3% 64%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → CLE 06:00 → IAD 07:15UA 1252 1h 45m Dulles IAD 09:00 → TPA 11:32UA 683 5h 32m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → CLE 05:35 → ATL 07:22DL 2734 1h 16m Atlanta ATL 08:38 → TPA 10:07DL 1227 4h 32m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → CLE 08:05 → ATL 09:55DL 349 2h 51m Atlanta ATL 12:46 → TPA 14:13DL 1525 6h 08m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → CLE 10:15 → ATL 11:59DL 1500 2h 10m Atlanta ATL 14:09 → TPA 15:51DL 1720 5h 36m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → CLE 07:15 → EWR 08:47UA 601 3h 12m Newark EWR 11:59 → TPA 15:09UA 601 7h 54m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → CLE 07:05 → ATL 08:55DL 2838 2h 15m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → TPA 12:39DL 1099 5h 34m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → CLE 08:15 → EWR 09:48UA 2468 2h 39m Newark EWR 12:27 → TPA 15:20UA 1273 7h 05m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → CLE 08:47 → ORD 09:19UA 656 2h 00m Chicago ORD 11:19 → TPA 15:12UA 1834 6h 25m 97% 85%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → CLE 13:00 → LGA 14:47DL 5045 · flown by Endeavor 52m New York LGA 15:39 → TPA 18:54DL 2404 5h 54m 70% 52%
DeltaDetails → CLE 17:15 → JFK 19:09DL 4975 · flown by Endeavor 46m New York JFK 19:55 → TPA 23:20DL 1636 6h 05m 60% 49%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON