Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 3186 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 8–16%.

Safest bet that day DL 3186 CLT 05:30 → ATL 06:41 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest OH 5269 CLT 19:35 → ATL 20:56 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3186 Delta Flight history →	CLT 05:30	ATL 06:41	3%	2%	0.7%	96%
DL 1709 Delta	CLT 09:33	ATL 10:49	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 1656 Delta	CLT 06:39	ATL 07:54	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
DL 2157 Delta Flight history →	CLT 14:22	ATL 15:37	7%	2%	0.6%	80%
DL 3190 Delta Flight history →	CLT 12:19	ATL 13:32	8%	2%	0.6%	87%
DL 1724 Delta	CLT 16:56	ATL 18:13	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 3156 Delta Flight history →	CLT 08:01	ATL 09:15	9%	2%	0.7%	92%
AA 5552 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 10:38	ATL 12:00	11%	3%	0.6%	100%worse than usual
AA 5498 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 22:36	ATL 23:58	11%	3%	0.7%	70%
AA 5175 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 14:27	ATL 15:50	13%	3%	0.6%	73%
AA 5067 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 17:08	ATL 18:28	14%	3%	0.6%	79%
OH 5207 PSA	CLT 08:32	ATL 09:57	15%	3%	0.7%	no record
OH 5269 PSA	CLT 19:35	ATL 20:56	16%	4%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON