Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 8–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 818 CLT 08:35 → AUS 10:31 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 1905 CLT 19:01 → AUS 20:57 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 818 American Flight history →	CLT 08:35	AUS 10:31	8%	2%	0.6%	85%
AA 1052 American	CLT 12:08	AUS 13:55	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 3070 American	CLT 14:12	AUS 16:00	15%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 1905 American Flight history →	CLT 19:01	AUS 20:57	18%	5%	0.6%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON