Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 19–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OH 5489 CLT 15:59 → AVL 16:52 · 19% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5588 CLT 13:58 → AVL 14:42 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OH 5489 PSA	CLT 15:59	AVL 16:52	19%	6%	0.8%	no record
OH 5475 PSA	CLT 17:38	AVL 18:34	19%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 5588 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 13:58	AVL 14:42	20%	6%	0.8%	72%
AA 6030 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 09:05	AVL 10:19	11%	1%	1.4%	89%
AA 6033 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 07:20	AVL 08:26	11%	1%	1.4%	89%
AA 6112 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 13:13	AVL 14:19	13%	6%	0.0%	87%
AA 6032 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 16:46	AVL 17:55	34%	20%	0.0%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON