Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 2838 at 08:25 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–20%.

Safest bet that day AA 2838 CLT 08:25 → BDL 10:35 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 3280 CLT 18:33 → BDL 20:38 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2838 American Flight history →	CLT 08:25	BDL 10:35	9%	2%	0.6%	87%
AA 2741 American Flight history →	CLT 12:06	BDL 14:03	9%	3%	0.6%	75%
AA 2763 American Flight history →	CLT 23:14	BDL 01:13	16%	3%	0.6%	53%
AA 3280 American Flight history →	CLT 18:33	BDL 20:38	20%	3%	0.6%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON