Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, AA 1874 at 10:42, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 1874 American	CLT 10:42	BGR 13:22	7%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bangor on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	CLT 06:57 → LGA 08:45AA 2036	2h 55m New York	LGA 11:40 → BGR 13:27AA 4488 · flown by Republic	6h 30m	99%	92%
American Details →	CLT 05:53 → PHL 07:41AA 1838	1h 14m Philadelphia	PHL 08:55 → BGR 10:51AA 6123 · flown by Piedmont	4h 58m	96%	85%
American Details →	CLT 11:00 → PHL 12:43AA 2498	1h 26m Philadelphia	PHL 14:09 → BGR 16:00AA 2142	5h 00m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	CLT 10:01 → JFK 11:59DL 5052 · flown by Endeavor	1h 50m New York	JFK 13:49 → BGR 15:42DL 5151 · flown by Endeavor	5h 41m	93%	73%
American Details →	CLT 16:43 → PHL 18:32AA 864	3h 18m Philadelphia	PHL 21:50 → BGR 23:45AA 6093 · flown by Piedmont	7h 02m	95%	65%
Delta Details →	CLT 09:36 → LGA 11:32DL 5068 · flown by Endeavor	3h 05m New York	LGA 14:37 → BGR 16:21DL 5010 · flown by Endeavor	6h 44m	96%	62%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	CLT 11:50 → LGA 13:50DL 5051 · flown by Endeavor	47m New York	LGA 14:37 → BGR 16:21DL 5010 · flown by Endeavor	4h 30m	59%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON