Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 8–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OH 5050 CLT 22:06 → BHM 22:26 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5205 CLT 19:51 → BHM 20:12 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OH 5050 PSA	CLT 22:06	BHM 22:26	8%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 5043 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 09:27	BHM 10:02	9%	2%	0.7%	100%
OO 6270 SkyWest	CLT 11:42	BHM 12:10	9%	3%	0.5%	no record
OH 5448 PSA	CLT 14:48	BHM 15:16	10%	2%	0.7%	no record
OO 6350 SkyWest	CLT 16:12	BHM 16:51	10%	3%	0.5%	no record
AA 5205 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 19:51	BHM 20:12	12%	3%	0.7%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON