Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 9 nonstops are 5–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 4368 CLT 06:55 → BNA 07:21 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 526 CLT 20:42 → BNA 21:09 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4368 Southwest	CLT 06:55	BNA 07:21	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 2407 Southwest	CLT 06:42	BNA 07:06	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
AA 1295 American	CLT 10:30	BNA 10:56	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 4015 Southwest	CLT 11:11	BNA 11:25	7%	2%	0.5%	no record
AA 2409 American	CLT 13:24	BNA 14:03	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 538 American	CLT 13:15	BNA 13:36	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 519 American Flight history →	CLT 21:01	BNA 21:42	12%	4%	0.6%	78%
AA 1644 American Flight history →	CLT 21:59	BNA 22:25	12%	4%	0.6%	62%
AA 526 American Flight history →	CLT 20:42	BNA 21:09	13%	4%	0.6%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON